Is going all inn pre flop with JJ a profitable strategy?

Going all inn with JJ pre flop when first to act. Can it be a profitable strategy? Thats the question I try too answer in this blog. 

I came to this question after I played the following hand in a NLH cash game. I got AA on the big blind, the player first to act, who had 60 big blinds, goes all inn. Everybody folds. I have 100 big blinds and call. 

He shows JJ and ends up beating me with a flush. 

Of course my call was correct, no matter what hand he had, I should win this all inn at least 5 out of 6 times. This was just another bad beat story for me.

But I wondered, could this play with JJ ever be correct? 

For this play to be correct or not, all depends on your stack size.

Lets assume you will only get a caller when somebody has AA or KK. 

This means that every time nobody has AA or KK you will pick up the blinds. 

The chance of getting AA is about 0,45%, same for KK. 

Therefore the chance of getting AA or KK is about 0,9%.

On a 9 handed table with 8 opponents the chance of any of these opponents having AA or KK is 8 x 0,9=7,2%.

This means that you will win the blinds about 92,8% of the time you go all inn. Still assuming that only someone with AA or KK will call and you don’t get multiple callers.

When someone happens to call you with AA or KK, you still have about 18% chance to win the hand. As my opponent did.

If you play 1000 hands of JJ going all inn pre flop when first to act. How big must your stack be to break even? Too win as much as we loose?

When you play 1000 hands this way, you will pick up the blinds uncontested 928 times. The other 72 times you get called. When you get called, 59 times you will loose your whole stack and 13 times you will double your stack plus you win the blinds.

Lets say the small blind is 1/2 the big blind and your stack size is S.

Your loses will be 59 x S.

Your winnings will be ((928 + 13) x (big blind + small blind)) + (13 x S)

To break even, your winnings and loses must be equal.

We can now figure out how big your stack must be to break.

Loses = Winnings

59 x S = ((928 + 13) x (big blind + small blind)) + (13 x S)

59 x S = (941 x 1,5 big blinds) + (13 x S)

(59 - 13) x S = 1411,5 big blinds

46 x S = 1411,5 big blinds

S = 1411,5 / 46 big blinds

S = 30,7 big blinds

To break even it turns out you need a stack of roughly 30 big blinds.

In this case of my opponent with 60 big blinds, although he won, it wasn’t a profitable game in the long run to go all inn pre flop with JJ.

It’s easy to see why. Most of your profit will come from winning the blinds and most of your loses come from loosing your whole stack.  If your stack gets smaller, your winnings from the blinds will stay the same, but your loses go down. 

With a stack of 30 big blinds you could go all inn with JJ, but should you?

To break even with JJ your stack must be smaller then 30 big blinds.

That means you're not losing, but you're not winning much either.

Also I didn’t take into account the chance of getting called by multiple opponents.

When your stack goes down to 20 big blinds it becomes a little bit more profitable to go all inn. With 10 big blinds left it becomes even more profitable. But with only 10 big blinds left there is an increased risk of people calling you with other hands then only AA or KK.

This shows that when you have less than 30 big blinds it becomes a reasonable option too go all inn when you have a pocket pair. The fewer blinds you have left, the more profitable it becomes to go all inn pre flop. 

All this number crunching is fun, but it doesn’t account for game dynamics, image and bad players. Once people know you go all inn with JJ, they start calling you with QQ, AK and maybe AQ too.

Besides the numbers, I also  think going all inn pre flop with JJ is not a very good game because you simplify the game to only one action, going all inn pre flop.  Doing this takes away your opportunity too play the flop, turn and river. If you are a good player there are a lot of ways too win with JJ after the flop. 

What you are doing when you shove all inn is gambling with very big odds too win a very small prize. Meanwhile you give all other players very big odds too double up there stacks against you if they happen too get AA or KK. 

You might as well be called Santa Claus.

If you are in a cash game there is no reason too play a short stack unless you run out of money. I prefer too play at least with 50 bb's, if you fall below that, simply buy some new chips so you are up to 50 to a 100 big blinds again. Therefore in a cash game, I would (almost) never shove all inn pre flop with JJ.

Only when you are in a tournament and you have less then 20 big blinds I recommend you gamble and go all inn with a pocket pair 88 or higher.

I hope this blog wasn’t too much numbers for you. Let me know what you think in the comments below.